Fertility Levels, Trends, and Differentials: National Demographic and Health Survey Part 1

***Seminar paper submitted by Marlon B. Raquel to Prof. Eliseo de Guzman in Demography 210 class, Population Institute, University of the Philippines.

INTRODUCTION

Since 1960s demographers have been closely monitoring the trend in fertility in the Philippines. Nationwide surveys have been undertaken to provide data on intercensal and postcensal demographic trends. The 1968 National Demographic Survey (NDS) was the first national survey conducted that included detailed measurement of reproductive behaviors and childbearing desires. The 1968 NDS was followed by the 1973 NDS, 1978 NDS, 1983 NDS, 1988 NDS, 1993 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), 1998 NDHS, and latest of these eight surveys is the 2003 NDHS. The 2003 National Demographic and Health Survey is the third national sample survey undertaken in the Philippines under the auspices of the Worldwide Demographic and Health Surveys program.

Although there is a rapid declines in mortality and the increasing number of women in the childbearing ages, the rate of population growth is not likely to fall faster unless the fertility rate drops drastically. The latest NDHS indicates that there has been a steady decline in fertility from 6.0 children per woman in 1970 to 3.5 children per woman in 2001. This was the result of the total active government support that can be traced back since 1969 when the Commission of Population was established by President Marcos through Executive Order 171. During 1990s, Philippine Population Management Program (PPMP) was developed to supplant the Philippine Population Program. The program adopted the population, resources, and environment (PRE) framework, which defines the connection between the population and sustainable development. To date, under the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the PPMP Directional Plan was updated through the development of Strategic Operational Plan (SOP). The PPMP SOP will focus on addressing the unmet need for family planning among the poor couples, and the sexuality and fertility information needs of the adolescents and youth, especially among those who are poor.

The examination of fertility levels, trends and differentials constitutes an important input in relevant program formulation and implementation. The extent to which fertility has changed over the last two decades will be described in this paper. Such changes may have come about as a result of the modifications and adaptations which Filipinos have had undergo in the past centuries as well as to the above-mentioned population policy and measures.

FERTILITY LEVELS AND TRENDS

I. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The most recent estimate of the national crude birth rate (CBR) reflects the situation as of 2003 (Table 1). The birth rates were obtained by calculating the number of births that would occur to the population being considered if it were subject to the age-specific fertility rates for the relevant period, and then dividing the total number of births by the total population for the same period.

The national CBR fell from 28.9 births per 1,000 population in 1983 to 26.9 births per 1,000 population in 1990 showing a seven percent (7%) decrease. From 1990, CBR fell again to 24.0 births in 1995 (11 percent), to 23.1 births in 2000 (4 percent), and to 20.6 births in 2003 (11 percent). Overall, there was about 29% decrease in the national crude birth rate for the past two decades.

Table 1

National Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Philippines, 1983-2003

Year	CBR	Percent Change (%)
1983	28.9	-
1990	26.9	7.0
1995	24.0	11.0
2000	23.1	4.0
2003	20.6	11.

The crude birth rates from 1990 to 2003 for each of the 16 regions are listed in Table 2. The birth rates were obtained by calculating the number of births that would occur to the population being considered if it were subject to the age-specific fertility rates for the relevant period. Based on the data presented, the trend observed appears to be a declining one except that of Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao where the CBR increased to 5.0 in 2003 from 3.9 in 2000.

The estimates for the crude birth rate for the nation as a whole show that between 1990 and 2003, the birth rate declined by about 31 percent. In 1990 the national CBR fell from 26.9 births per 1,000 population to 23.1 births in 2000 which exhibited a decreased\by about 12 percent and to 20.6 percent in 2003 (12 percent). By 2003 crude birth rates are relatively high in the more developed regions of NCR (25.8 births per 1,000 population) and Central Visayas (25.3 births per 1,000 population) compared to the less developed regions of the country, for example, Bicol (22.8 births), Eastern Visayas (14.4 percent) and Mindanao areas. What is most striking here is that Eastern Visayas, considered as one of the poorest regions in the country, has the lowest crude birth rates from 1990 to 2003 with exception of the ARMM.

In general, the regional crude birth rates exhibited a monotonic decline of CBRs between 1990 and 2003. The decline in the CBRs in the Mindanao areas has been possibly affected by the reorganization with other regions and the influx of out-migrants to Metro Manila. National Capital Region has a very slow decline in CBR compared with other regions. This can be attributed in the increases in the fertility rates among women ages 15-29.

Table 2

Crude Birth Rates by Region: Philippines, 1990, 2000 and 2003

Region	1990	2000	2003
Philippines	26.9	23.1	20.6
National Capital Region	35.5	30.6	25.8
Cordillera Administrative Region	25.4	24.2	21.5
I. Ilocos Region	27.6	24.1	22.4
II. Cagayan Valley	28.3	21.2	19.8
III. Central Luzon	28.9	24.9	23.4
IV. Southern Tagalog	27.5	25.4	21.4
V. Bicol Region	27.9	25.2	22.8
VI. Western Visayas	21.5	19.9	16.8
VII. Central Visayas	30.5	26.8	25.3
VIII. Eastern Visayas	18.9	17.1	14.4
IX. Western Mindanao	24.7	18.1	16.5
X. Northern Mindanao	45.5	21.7	18.6
XI. Southern Mindanao	30.0	20.0
XII. Central Mindanao	22.7	17.0
XIII. Caraga	-	18.9	14.5
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao	-	3.9	5

Source: Health and Vital Statistics Division
Civil Registry Department
National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines

Table 3 shows the crude birth rates of the 10 ASEAN nations from 1990 to 2004. The Philippines ranked third (32.9 births per 1,000 population) in 1990, fourth in 1999 (20 births) and third again in 2004 (25 births). Philippines lagged behind Malaysia in 1990 which has 31.9 births, 1995 (26 births) and in 2004 (22 births); by Indonesia in 1990 (31.9 births), 1999 (24 births) and in 2004 (21.4 births); by Vietnam in 1990 (30 births), and 20 births in 1999 and 2004; and by Thailand in 1990 (23.1 births), in 1999 (18 births) and in 2004 (16 births). Singapore registered the highest rate of decline between 1990 and 2004 which is 91 percent while Brunei has the lowest rate of decline by 20 percent. The Philippines, on the other hand, has a 31 percent rate od change of the same period.

Table 3

Estimates of the crude Birth Rates of ASEAN: 1990-2004

Country	Crude Birth Rate (Per 1,000)
	1990	1999	2004
Laos	45.1	41.0	35.0
Cambodia	46.7	38.0	31.0
Philippines	32.8	29.0	25.0
Malaysia	31.9	26.0	22.0
Brunei	27.6	25.0	23.0
Indonesia	28.4	24.0	21.0
Myanmar	34.0	30.0	20.0
Viet Nam	30.0	20.0	20.0
Thailand	23.1	18.0	16.0
Singapore	17.2	15.0	9.0

Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2005

II. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates

The average age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) defined as the number of live births to women in a particular age group per 1,000 women in the same age group during the specified period and the total fertility rates (TFRs) defined as the sum of the ASFRs for all women aged 15-49 years for the period 1986 to 2003 are displayed in Table 4.

In general, the ASFRs exhibited a declining trend over time. The important exemptions were the increases experienced by the women aged 15-19 years in 1986-1993, aged 15-24 years in 1998-2003 and those aged 40-44 in 1998-2003. The average completed family size or total fertility rate estimated at 5.1 in 1986 to 3.5 in 2003, a decrease of about 31 percent.

The observed decline in fertility can be attributed to changes in family planning practices and programs. Over the past 20 years, the female mean age at first marriage has remained high and relatively stable, at around 22 years.

Table 4

Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) Per Thousand Women and Total Fertility Rates (TRFs) Per Woman: Philippines, 1986-2003

Period	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49	TFR
1986	48	192	229	198	140	62	15	4.4
1993	50	190	217	181	120	51	8	4.1
1998	46	177	210	155	111	40	7	3.7
2003	53	178	191	142	195	43	5	3.5
Percentage Change
1986-1993	4	-1	-5	-9	-14	-21	-25	-14
1993-1998	-8	-7	-3	-14	-8	-22	-12	-10
1998-2003	15	1	-9	-8	-14	8	-2

Table 5 presents the age-specific rates and total fertility rates for the 16 regions of the Philippines from 1995 to 2005. The data used in the derivation of age-specific fertility rates were from the vital registration reports published by the National Statistics Office. However, the author acknowledges that there are underregistration in the vital statistics in the less developing regions, that is why the ASFRs in these regions appear to be lower than that of urbanized regions such as NCR and Central Visayas. The general pattern for the 1995-2002 period was that of decline in age-specific fertility rates. However, there is an increase in the age-specific fertility rate from 1995 to 2000 in age 15-19 years. Total fertility rate as a whole decline from 3.06 children per woman in 1995 to 2.96 children to 2000 and then 2.41 children in 2002. from 1995 to 2002, there was a decrease in total fertility rate by about 21 percent. Fertility rates in the early childbearing ages, especially in the 15-19 years, increased in all regions from 1995 to 2000 but declined in 2002. Mindanao areas exhibited a lower fertility rates than those with the regions in Luzon and Visayas areas but this is possibly due to the reorganization of Mindanao regions in the late 1990s. Declines in the total fertility rate of more than 10 percent over the 1995-2002 period were observed in National Capital Region (15 percent), Cordillera Administrative Region (17 percent), Ilocos Region (24 percent), Central Luzon (20 percent), Southern Tagalog (16 percent), Bicol Region (18 percent), Western Visayas (24 percent), Central Visayas (22 percent), Eastern Visayas (23 percent), Western Mindanao (29 percent), Northern Mindanao (43 percent), Southern Mindanao (24 percent), Central Mindanao (32 percent), Caraga Region (25 percent), and ARMM (29 percent).

Table 5 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Per 1,000 Women by Region and by Age Group: Philippines, 1995-2002
REGION/			Age Group
AGE GROUP	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49	TFR
Philippines
1995	28	145	168	137	90	38	6	3.06
2000	31	139	163	132	86	36	6	2.96
2002	26	115	130	108	69	29	4	2.41
NCR
1995	35	144	176	142	83	26	3	3.04
2000	43	153	178	142	86	27	4	3.16
2002	38	128	142	1115	67	22	3	2.58
CAR
1995	26	135	166	162	94	43	7	3.16
2000	32	142	171	146	96	43	6	3.31
2002	27	118	141	122	78	35	5	2.63
I. Ilocos Region
1995	31	160	184	145	98	45	7	3.35
2000	34	155	176	140	90	40	6	3.20
2002	29	134	123	108	76	32	5	2.54
II. Cagayan Valley
1995	33	178	173	130	85	38	7	3.22
2000	34	149	156	118	74	32	7	2.85
2002	29	129	130	99	59	26	4	2.38
III. Central Luzon
1995	36	167	181	131	79	31	5	3.15
2000	38	157	173	128	77	29	4	3.03
2002	33	132	143	107	63	23	4	2.52
IV. Southern Tagalog
1995	32	138	180	140	89	37	6	3.11
2000	36	153	176	138	87	35	5	3.15
2002	31	129	145	113	71	27	4	2.60
V. Bicol
1995	24	170	208	174	128	60	10	3.87
2000	27	165	210	176	127	60	11	3.88
2002	23	135	171	144	106	48	8	3.17
VI. Western Visayas
1995	16	115	160	141	100	46	7	2.92
2000	19	110	154	138	98	44	8	2.86
2002	16	89	119	108	76	34	5	2.24
VII. Central Visayas
1995	38	176	202	169	115	52	8	3.80
2000	38	164	192	157	109	47	6	3.56
2002	36	138	156	134	87	38	5	2.97
VIII. Eastern Visayas
1995	23	118	142	120	85	37	6	2.65
2000	24	118	140	119	85	38	6	2.65
2002	19	89	108	95	66	29	4	2.05
IX. Western Mindanao
1995	23	128	142	125	87	37	6	2.74
2000	24	112	130	110	77	34	5	2.46
2002	18	86	101	91	60	27	4	1.94
X. Northern Mindanao
1995	39	225	256	214	101	48	9	4.46
2000	29	136	154	128	92	43	7	2.94
2002	24	107	121	103	71	31	5	2.31
XI. Southern Mindanao
1995	28	140	160	137	84	38	7	2.97
2000	30	122	138	112	76	34	6	2.59
2002	25	98	110	92	61	26	4	2.08
XII. Central Mindanao
1995	21	107	123	112	75	35	7	2.40
2000	23	101	117	102	75	35	7	2.30
2002	20	84	94	82	57	27	5	1.84
XIII. Caraga
1995	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2000	21	117	153	131	94	36	7	2.80
2002	15	86	114	101	69	32	5	2.11
ARMM
1995	4	20	24	24	16	8	1	0.48
2000	4	20	27	27	14	6	2	0.50
2002	3	14	17	17	9	4	1	0.34

Source: Vital Registration Reports 1995, 2000, 2002
*Adjustments were not made on these data.

Table 6 displays the ratio of regional fertility rates to national fertility rates from 1995 to 2002. It can be noted that there are six regions that are consistently exceeded the national fertility rates for the period 1995 to 2002. These are the National Capital Region, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Bicol Region and Central Visayas.

Table 6

Ratio (Percent) of Regional to National Fertility Rates, 1983-2002

REGION	1995	2000	2002
Philippines	100	100	100
National Capital Region	100	107	107
Cordillera Administrative Region	70	112	109
I. Ilocos Region	110	108	105
II. Cagayan Valley	105	96	99
III. Central Luzon	103	102	105
IV. Southern Tagalog	102	106	108
V. Bicol Region	127	131	132
VI. Western Visayas	106	96	93
VII. Central Visayas	124	120	124
VIII. Eastern Visayas	87	89	85
IX. Western Mindanao	90	54	81
X. Northern Mindanao	146	99	96
XI. Southern Mindanao	97	101	86
XII. Central Mindanao	78	76	77
Caraga	-	94	88
ARMM	16	17	14

Source: For 1995-2002, computed from the Vital Registration Reports,

NSO. Manila, Philippines.

The 1990-2002 fertility rates specific for age and marital status (ASMFRs) and the resulting total marital fertility rates (TMFRs) defined in the same as the ASFRs and TFRs except that the women referred to in the denominators are married women, are recorded in Table 7. The table shows that there is a diminishing number of births of all age groups from 1990 to 2002 except for ages 15-19 years. This means that young married women were not limiting their childbearing activities. Instead, there was a 15 percent increase in the TFMR from 1990 to 2002. The largest decreases were apparent among married women, 20-29 and 40-49 years between 1990 and 1995 and 25-49 years between 1995 to 2002. This pattern was manifested in the TMFR for 1995 which dropped by almost six percent from 1990 and seven percent decline in 2002 from 1995. This trend shows that changes in marital fertility have played an important role in the decline of overall fertility, suggesting the positive response of married women to the family program of the government.

Table 7

Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rates Per Thousand Married Women and

Total Marital Fertility Rate Per Married Woman, Philippines: 1990, 1995 and 2002

Period	Births Per Thousand Married Women Aged							Total Marital Fertility Rate
	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49
Rate
1990	319	357	251	162	103	48	8	6.20
1995	368	297	221	151	95	39	7	5.97
2002	385	270	181	136	84	34	5	5.50
Change
1990-1995
Amount	+49	-60	-30	-11	-8	-9	-1	-0.3
Percentage	+15	-16	-12	-7	-8	-19	-12	-5.0
1995-2002
Amount	+17	-27	-40	-15	-11	-5	-2	-0.4
Percentage	+15	-9	-18	-10	-12	-13	-29	-7.0

Source: 1990, 1995 and 2002 Vital Registration Statistics Reports

Population Trends: Philippines. US Bureau of the Census. Issued February 1996

In Table 8, the author notes that the most recent projections by the United Nations Population Division – the 2000 Revision (United Nations, 2001) – show a replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) attained in the period 2015-2020. It makes clear what must occur if the Philippines is to conform to the scenario described in the United Nations projections: the pace of decline must quicken in the next fifteen years.

Table 8

Total Fertility Rates: United Nations Estimates

Period	Total Fertility Rate	Percentage Change
2000-2005	3.24	-11
2005-2010	2.79	-13.9
2010-2015	2.33	-16.5
2015-2020	2.10	-9.9
2020-2025	2.10	0

Source: Costello, Marilou P. and John B. Casterline. Fertility Decline in the Philippines: Current

Status, Future Prospects (Table 1).

Although there is an apparent decline in fertility, the Philippines has fallen far behind its neighboring Southeast Asian countries in population growth reduction which may be attributed mainly to sluggish fertility decline and economic performance. Table 11 shows that in the year 2004, Philippines ranked third among the 10 Southeast Asian countries which has TFR of 3.1. Laos and Cambodia have 4.7 and 4.0 TFR, respectively. Malaysia has 2.8, Brunei Darussalam has 2.4 while Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam have the same TFR of 2.3. Thailand has 1.9 while Singapore has the lowest TFR in 2004 which is 1.3.

Table 9

Total Fertility Rates of ASEAN: 1990-2004

Country	Total Fertility Rate
	1990	1999	2004
Laos	6.7	5.6	4.7
Cambodia	5.3	5.2	4.0
Philippines	4.3	3.7	3.1
Malaysia	4.0	3.2	2.8
Brunei	3.4	3.4	2.4
Indonesia	3.3	2.8	2.3
Myanmar	4.5	3.8	2.3
Viet Nam	3.8	2.3	2.3
Thailand	2.6	2.0	1.9
Singapore	1.7	1.6	1.3

Source: For the crude birth rate and total fertility rate in

2004, data were taken from the website of the

United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) at

http://www.unicef.org. All others were taken from GSO P.48.